Canada Needs More Homes to Sustain Affordability

Canada’s recent affordability gains look fragile as new home construction slows, especially ownership housing, raising concerns that supply will not keep pace with future demand.
New estimates show Canada needs 417K to 469K housing starts annually to restore affordability to pre-pandemic levels by 2036, leaving the supply gap broadly unchanged.
Across Canada’s major markets, most new supply now comes from rentals, while ownership-oriented starts have weakened considerably, even as added rentals bring more balanced conditions.
Slower population growth has helped affordability improve, but construction slowed faster than demand, signaling a softer market could still leave Canada short when demand rebounds.
The key takeaway: protecting affordability means keeping ownership construction moving now, so Canada avoids a deeper home supply shortfall when market demand strengthens again.